Earth Commission
Identifying a Safe and Just Corridor for People and the Planet - Rockström - 2021 - Earth's Future - Wiley Online Library

A great read - 7 pages...

"For the first time in human history, we are now forced to consider the real risk of destabilizing our home, planet Earth. This is an existential risk, as we all need a planet that can sustain life and provide the basis for the well-being of all people. Here, we outline a conceptual framework for a global-scale “safe and just corridor” that delivers on these goals for people and the planet. The recently formed Earth Commission will use this framework to map key functions that regulate the state of the Earth system and provide life support to us humans, including processes such as biodiversity and nutrient cycling. It will also analyze the related justice components, for each of these Earth systems..."

I found pages 4 and 5 most relevant for my own thinking about the how and why of Just Transition pathways. The authors outline the following:

3. "Integrating Justice in Earth System Targets Human choices and actions could narrow or widen the safe and just corridor for human development. Considering the complex interactions, feedbacks, and non-linearities within and between societal activities and Earth system behavior, we need to advance beyond previous frameworks such as the “donut” (Raworth, 2018) to understand when “safe” and “just” ranges do and do not overlap. First, an “unsafe” world is likely to increase inequality, so “safe” would seem a necessary pre-condition for “just”—but not always a sufficient one. A “safe” target from a biophysical perspective may not be adequate to prevent large-scale risks to humans in specific contexts. For example, there are large risks for many human populations even with a 1.5°C climate target (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018). 

Second, a key question is how biophysically “safe” targets can be achieved while also meeting goals for human well-being and justice. For example, meeting the social goals of Agenda 2030 without widespread transformations may lead to crossing safe targets for the biophysical state of the Earth system (Sachs et al., 2019). Achieving biophysical targets, such as 1.5°C for climate or increasing ecosystem protection, can undermine well-being, if, for example, bioenergy competes with food production, or protected areas undermine local livelihoods (Hasegawa et al., 2020). 

Third, risks of exceeding safe and just targets are amplified for vulnerable people and can affect human health, displace people, and destabilize societies. ...."

and jump into a discussion of levers of transformation and challenges of transition...with an emphasis on how you do this in an equitable manner...as they write

"it is unclear how such transformations will actually be leveraged. Learning the lessons regarding equity in sharing resources, rights, responsibilities, and risks is critical (Ensor & Hoddy, 2020). For example, the evolution of transboundary water law has led to the identification of key criteria for sharing water between nations (UNGA, 1997). Furthermore, the politics of who gets what, when, where, and how is often determined by those who are more powerful in the system. Rules of access and distribution then become locked-in and difficult to transform. Existing environmental assessments, with a few exceptions (IPBES, 2019), often do not make space to discuss the critical political science and international relations literature with respect to these issues.." 

 Learn More About What Is Meant by the PolyCrisis and how to use a Systems approach to grasp the complexity of intersecting problems and what it all means for alternatives.   

The global polycrisis reflects a civilizational crisis that calls for systemic alternatives - resilience

"When examining systemic risks, it is important to clarify which system(s) are being considered. In the case of global polycrisis, one may consider multiple systemic risks in terms of their impact on the integrated global system, conceived as the human-Earth system writ large. Such an expansive point of reference complicates analysis, given that variables may be understood as exogenous or endogenous to specific systems, all the while being contained within and transmitted across the human-Earth system."

"Global catastrophic risks are events “that might have the potential to inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale.” For example, a disaster causing “10 million fatalities or 10 trillion dollars worth of economic loss… would count as a global catastrophe, even if some region of the world escaped unscathed.” Other scholars have defined GCRs as “threats that can eliminate at least 10% of the global population.”

"Existential risks, on the other hand, are even broader in scope and more severe in impact. They are defined as, “One where an adverse outcome would either annihilate Earth-originating intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtail its potential.”

"Most past collapses were precipitated by both social and environmental causes, and most were not apocalyptic. Collapse is usually never sudden and complete; it occurs progressively over time.

Dmitry Orlov provides the following taxonomy of five general stages that help clarify how societal collapse unfolds (excerpted with permission from The Five Stages of Collapse):

Stage 1: Financial Collapse. Faith in “business as usual” is lost. The future is no longer assumed to resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out and access to capital is lost.

Stage 2: Commercial Collapse. Faith that “the market shall provide” is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.

Stage 3: Political Collapse. Faith that “the government will take care of you” is lost. As official attempts to mitigate widespread loss of access to commercial sources of survival necessities fail to make a difference, the political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.

Stage 4: Social Collapse. Faith that “your people will take care of you” is lost, as social institutions, be they charities or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum, run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.

Stage 5: Cultural Collapse. Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for “kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity.” Families disband and compete as individuals for scarce resources. The new motto becomes “May you die today so that I can die tomorrow.”

and more..a helpful read...

Housing Crisis in Canada: A Critical Take

 The rising costs of attainable housing is a key topic in the MOOC. Here is a Canadian take on why we have a crisis of affordable housing, one some governments want to solve by giving over green belts to private developers. No Thanks you. Lets return to a real role for governments: 

We can't fix the housing crisis in Canada without understanding how it was created
by u/leftwingmememachine in ndp

A Good Read on Why We Cant Just Do It and Change

 Thanks to Ben from the MOOC Group for sharing this latest reflection from  Richard Heinberg 

Museletter #360: Why We Can't Just Do It - Richard Heinberg

Net Zero Steel !?$

 Growing up in Hamilton Ontario I worked for a few years in steel, as a labourer at STELCO (with about 12000 other men and a handful of women in the 1970s). 

The exchange of money for labour rebuilding open hearth furnaces funded my university studies. In the last forty years, Stelco changed owners, shed labour, stole pensions from retirees, and has mostly disappeared. Meanwhile  I reflected on the challenges of sustainability for steelmakers and a society so depndent on steel ( and cement) as building materials. Lately I've came to appreciate this discussion. Net Zero Steel Project

Good Free Degrowth Book for Activists and Practitioners from MAYFLY BOOKS

 Degrowth & Strategy: how to bring about social-ecological transformation – MayFly (mayflybooks.org)

Degrowth is a counter-hegemonic movement that has the ambitious aim of transforming society towards social and ecological justice. But how do we get there? That is the question this book addresses. Adhering to the multiplicity of degrowth whilst also arguing that strategic prioritisation and coordination are key, Degrowth & Strategy advances the debate on strategy for social-ecological transformation. It explores what strategising means, identifies key directions for the degrowth movement, and scrutinises strategies in practice that aim to realise a degrowth society. Bringing together voices from degrowth and related movements, this book creates a polyphony for change going beyond the sum of its parts.

A Journalistic Summary of the Latest March 2023 IPCC Report on Climate Change

 https://theconversation.com/it-can-be-done-it-must-be-done-ipcc-delivers-definitive-report-on-climate-change-and-where-to-now-201763

This warming has driven widespread and rapid global changes, including sea level rise and climate extremes – resulting in widespread harm to lives, livelihoods and natural systems.

It’s increasingly clear that vulnerable people in developing countries – who have generally contributed little to greenhouse gas emissions – are often disproportionately affected by climate change.

Intergenerational inequities are also likely. A child born now is likely to suffer, on average, several times as many climate extreme events in their lifetime as their grandparents did.

The world is up the proverbial creek - but we still have a paddle. Climate change is worsening, but we have the means to act.

 Self Test Facts About Climate Change

Originally I hoped to share this pre-test  before the TCC MOOC started for 2023 so people could gauge their knowledge about CC and other issues in the MOOC.  So, better late than never. Give it a try. 

Source  6 Big Findings from the IPCC 2022 Report on Climate Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | World Resources Institute (wri.org)
I add a few more : )

1. Climate impacts are already more widespread and severe than expected.

T/F

Answer: True.

"Climate change is already causing widespread disruption in every region in the world with just 1.1 degrees C (2 degrees F) of warming.
Withering droughts, extreme heat and record floods already threaten food security and livelihoods for millions of people. Since 2008, devastating floods and storms have forced more than 20 million people from their homes each year. Since 1961, crop productivity growth in Africa shrunk by a third due to climate change.  

Today, half the global population faces water insecurity at least one month per year. Wildfires are scorching larger areas than ever before in many regions, leading to irreversible changes to the landscape. Higher temperatures are also enabling the spread of vector-borne diseases, such as West Nile virus, Lyme disease and malaria, as well as water-borne diseases like cholera." 

6 Big Findings from the IPCC 2022 Report

2. Politicians and commentators give remarkably little attention to the blue economy. We have a lot of “Green” politics, but no “Blue.” 

Answer: True 

"This should be rectified in any discourse on “transformation” or “great transition,” because the crises in the sea mostly reflect rapacious forms of rentier capitalism led by the interests of globalised finance. Consider a few stylised facts. The sea covers 71% of the earth’s surface, 40% of the world’s human population live near or depend on the sea for their livelihoods, it contains three-quarters of all life, and it accounts for half the oxygen we breathe. Of the 28,000 known species of fish, over a third are under acute stress, reproducing at a slower rate than they are being killed. Fish populations in many parts of the sea – characteristically called “fish stocks” (sic) – are being devastated. Imagine human populations being called human stocks.

See Guy Standing The Blue Commons: Rescuing the Economy of the Sea. 2022

 

3. We are locked into even worse impacts from climate change in the near-term. 

Answer: True

"Even if the world rapidly decarbonizes, greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere and current emissions trends will make some very significant climate impacts unavoidable through 2040. The IPCC estimates that in the next decade alone, climate change will drive 32-132 million more people into extreme poverty. Global warming will jeopardize food security, as well as increase the incidence of heat-related mortality, heart disease and mental health challenges." 

6 Big Findings from the IPCC 2022 Report

4. Risks will escalate quickly with higher temperatures, often causing irreversible impacts of climate change.

Answer: True

The IPCC report finds "that every tenth of a degree of additional warming will escalate threats to people, species and ecosystems. Even limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) — a global target in the Paris Climate Agreement — is not safe for all.

6 Big Findings from the IPCC 2022 Report

 

5. Inequity, conflict and development challenges heighten vulnerability to climate risks.   

Answer: True

"Inequity, conflict and development challenges such as poverty, weak governance, and limited access to basic services like healthcare not only heighten sensitivity to hazards, but also constrain communities’ ability to adapt to climatic changes. In highly vulnerable nations, for example, mortality from droughts, storms and floods in 2010-2020 was 15 times greater than in countries with very low vulnerability. Note well, that CC does not create these crises, rather CC is a threat magnifier. It is local violent struggles, inequality and uneven development that create vulnerability and make it challenging for people to adapt or react to climate threats."

6 Big Findings from the IPCC 2022 Report

6. Adaptation is crucial. Feasible solutions already exist, but more support must reach vulnerable communities.

T/F

Answer: True

"At least 170 countries’ climate policies now include adaptation, but many have yet to move beyond planning into implementation. The IPCC finds that efforts today are still largely incremental, reactive and small-scale, with most focusing only on current impacts or near-term risks. A gap between current adaptation levels and those needed persists, driven in large part by limited financial support."

6 Big Findings from the IPCC 2022 Report

7. Replacing fossil fuels with renewable and low carbon energy alternatives like wind, solar and hydro will allow us to make the transition to a sustainable future.

 T/F/ Maybe/ Unsure?

 

Answer: Critics argue that the fossil fuel - renewable energy dichotomy is a false contradiction that results in inaction based on a belief in technological solutions when large political and social changes are needed to achieve transition. 

Alexander Dunlap reminds us of a material reality: “So called renewable energy infrastructures are dependent on hydrocarbons in every single phase of their existence, from their conception to decommissioning into landfills. That is why fossil fuel + is a more accurate term for “renewable energy” because every aspect of wind, solar, and hydrological infrastructures are dependent on extensive – under and unaccounted for- uses of hydrocarbons…” Dunlap, Alexander. (2022) Conclusion: A Call to Action, Towards and insurrection in energy research.” In Nadesan, MH, Pasqualwtti, MJ and Keahey, J. (eds) Energy Democracies for Sustainable Futures. Amsterdam: Elsevier Academic Press.

8. Fifty years of Neoliberalism has in fact reduced inequality in America and globally.

T/False/Unsure

Answer: False

 “The wealth gap between the top 5 percent and the bottom 90 percent of Americans has steadily increased since the dawn of neoliberalism (Wolff 2017)." Gunderson provides three statistics that capture the enormity of inequality in the US (see Inequality.org 2020):

•​Three men own as much as the bottom half of Americans (Collins and Hoxie 2018).

•​The richest 5 percent of Americans own two-thirds of the wealth (Wolff 2017).

•​The top 1 percent and top 0.1 percent of Americans have more than doubled their wealth since 1983 (in 2016 dollars) while the total debts of the bottom 40 percent now exceed their assets (“negative wealth”) (Wolff 2017).  

Source: Gunderson, Ryan. Hothouse Utopia (pp. 3-4). John Hunt Publishing. Kindle Edition.

9. French President Macron recently stated that” the age of affluence is over?” Agree or disagree?

Answer: Agree, Disagree, Maybe, Not sure

Human industrial and social activities have begun to broach planetary limits and threaten to undercut the basis of human life.  Like others, Macron recognizes that we need to change course, to limit the material use of nature, conserve ecosystem services, shift to energy efficiency, reduce the intensity of material throughput and consumption. These changes will require broad moral agreement on what constitutes ‘enough’ for human basic needs and well-being.

Emphasizing where we need to go, many others make the case for  degrowth. 

“Degrowth advocates for the planned reduction of energy and material throughput to restore balance with the planet, meanwhile reducing inequality and improving human-wellbeing.”  Dunlap, Alexander. (2022) Conclusion A Call to Action, toward and energy research insurrection.” In Nadesan, MH, Pasqualwtti, MJ and Keahey, J. (eds) Energy Democracies for Sustainable Futures. Amsterdam: Elsevier Academic Press.

The Degrowth movement recognizes the acceleration of climate change, overconsumption of material resources, the social disparity of negative and positive climate changes, and takes strategic steps economic, societal and ecological disruptions, not endless growth, and adapt to lessen the negative impacts we will be facing. We will learn more about their ideas across the MOOC.

 

10. Some impacts of climate change are already too severe to adapt to. The world needs urgent action now to address losses and damages. How close is society to making these “unprecedented” and “far-reaching” changes to combat climate change?  and stay within 2 degrees warming?

 Answers: 

We are getting closer.  

Doable by 2030

Doable by 2050

Not close at all

 Answer: Not Close at all.

Climate scientists Kevin Anderson and Alice Bows (2011: 41) predicted that there is “little to no chance” of even staying within 2°C, which they consider the border between “dangerous” and “extremely dangerous” climate change. 

"According to Climate Analytics, a think tank that tracks the emissions and climate policies of over 32 countries that produce around 80 percent of total emissions, only two countries, Morocco and the Gambia, are on track to keeping global temperature rise within 1.5°C warming (Climate Action Tracker 2019). In fact, even if all countries achieved all of their current pledges and targets, which is highly unlikely, we can expect temperature increases of 3.5°C (Climate Action Tracker 2019). This is well-above catastrophic range." 

Source: Gunderson, Ryan. Hothouse Utopia (pp. 22-23). John Hunt Publishing. Kindle Edition.

11.  In this MOOC we emphasize climate change and energy realities alongside the social and political realities changemakers can expect to encounter. Then, we identify several  pre-figurative alternative practices taking place worldwide that combine low carbon futures and address basic needs, and developing strategies that can, as Gunderson argues:

•​Have the potential to increase social wellbeing in a just manner while effectively decreasing carbon emissions.

•​Already exist in pockets of the existing order “but as present only intermittently, partially, or potentially” (Young 2001: 10).

•​Can possibly overcome a major driver of climate change, which we formulate as a contradiction between capital’s need to expand production, on the one hand, and the destructive effects expansionistic production has on the climate system, on the other (the “capital-climate contradiction” …).

Source: Gunderson, Ryan. Hothouse Utopia (pp. 128-129). John Hunt Publishing. Kindle Edition.

Like Gunderson our MOOC calls on us all to explore “real possibilities’ that face real realities about climate change, social inequality, basic needs in an age of energy decline, degrowth, and post-capitalism.

Major shifts in living will be required if we are to decrease the harm faced by future generations.

 

12. An encouraging note about the future and "real possibilities."

“real possibilities … exhibit a practical relation to the future. They are concretely linked to the hoped-for utopia. In this case utopia is no empty, merely theoretical, possibility, but a very real one. As such it is not only edifying and convincing, but – this is the crux of the matter – it also displays the ways and means for its realization. Utopia is a striving toward the ‘real possible,’ since present reality already contains the elements for its possible future changes (i.e. possibilities that do not exist in actu but are at hand in potential). Humanity’s creative capacities which are still dormant can be aroused and realized; this is implied in the idea of utopia.” 

Source: Gunderson, Ryan. Hothouse Utopia (p. 125). John Hunt Publishing. Kindle Edition.

 

Welcome and see you inside the MOOC as we discuss, share peer to peer experience, and grow our collective capacity to make change.

Learn More

Read  6 Big Findings from the IPCC 2022 Report on Climate Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability | World Resources Institute (wri.org)

 

FOOD and Climate Change : A few thoughts and Sources 

We are well into the 2023 Synergia MOOC on Transition with some 1000 participants. 

And I want to share a few ideas on the FOOD module. 

As a co-lead I have had my say on its design and contents. But things fall off the table as we compromise, prune and focus down to a tight commentary. And things emerge while teaching.  

So, occasionally, I thought that I would scan my research and reading notes for emergent writers, resources, and ideas as they relate to basic needs, climate justice, and degrowth thinking (the latter a topic that I introduce in M1 but wish to dig into as we traverse the MOOC themes).

To keep things short in the MOOC forums I posted these ideas in my old blogspot. Who knows, maybe blogs will come back into style.😎

 

Food Module – Mike Gismondi’s Mind is Going Here in 2023.

1. Check Your World BioClimate Regions

A useful map that shows you the bioclimate regions of the world. Locate those parts of the world that share the same moisture and temperature patterns of your home region. It makes sense to me that what others are doing in each bioregion (facing comparable climate challenges) should be one focus of our research into vulnerability, adaptation and alternatives, and not just national approaches to CC. As to food and region, food is living and “Bioclimates are understood as the most important factor influencing the distribution of living things, but terrain variables are also important, mainly because they modify macroclimates into mesoclimates and microclimates.

World Climate Regions (arcgis.com)

 

2. This year, the uneven social impacts of “extreme events” caused by CC (storms, floods, fire, heat waves) received more attention. See the impacts of heat waves and floods on undocumented agricultural workers and the relationship to the foods we eat. Seems obvious but worth emphasizing that it's not just about commodity chains, food miles, depleted aquifers, but also labour and human misery.  I follow the approach of Deborah Barndt and her full circle methodology in my previous sustainability and development research. Tomasita Project | Deborah Barndt 

Recently, these two writers add a climate change dimension to consider:

The flood in Pajaro isn't just a 'natural' disaster - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com)

California Farmworkers Still Tending Fields in 114-Degree Heat (capitalandmain.com)

 

3. My early research and teaching career focussed on industrial democracy and workers control. I put that down to growing up in Hamilton, Ontario, a steel and heavy industry city. I worked a series of unionized jobs there and paid for my education in the 1970s and 80s.  Deindustrialization means those  jobs are gone now, and my co-workers (and some uncles and aunts) have even lost their industrial pensions. Precarity and precarious work are the words we use today. A Canadian example is to watch for is the Temporary Foreign Workers Program/ and how it relates to the FOOD industry in M3, and Module 4 on Work and Precarity. And such programs operate in most countries.

Anelyse Wieler. (2018) Commentary: “View of A food policy for Canada, but not just for Canadians: Reaping justice for migrant farm workers.” Canadian Food Studies. September. Open-Source PDF. 5 pages.  Wieler connects the dots between equity, race, food sovereignty activism and the unfair labour practices faced by temporary migrant labourers working on Canadian farms and food processing plants in Canada. As she concludes “food security in Canada cannot occur on the backs of migrant farm workers, their families and home communities.” This is an important reminder to look for contradictions in our self-sufficiency efforts.

 

 4. Water Issues/ California/ Food for North America: The topic of depleted aquifers and industrial agricultural farming and food across North America came up early in Module 1 discussions. On this topic, I recommend the critical journalist Mark Arax (imagine an American writer who does research ala George Monbiot) author of The Dreamt Land: Chasing Water and Dust Across California. Here is his food and water essay from the Atlantic in 2021…

A Well Fixer's Story of the California Drought - The Atlantic – “That’s…1 million acre-feet of overdraft each dry year. That’s water taken out of the earth and not returned by rain or snowmelt.”

  

4. Last couple of year's I have followed the meat-eating and climate change debate. I suggest a few  readings in the M3 Supplemental Wakelet collection. I try to approach the topic as systems thinker. In recent years, I’ve come to think more about the rights of other than human species and to investigate human over-consumption of animals as food and the links to biodiversity loss. That said, I am also aware that many indigenous communities rely on country food, especially wild meats. I learned from how this author links diet to CC

The Climate Activists Who Dismiss Meat Consumption Are Wrong | The New Republic

“Today’s climate pragmatism offers a frustratingly narrow vision of reform. Rather than challenging the instrumental view of nature that led us to this pre-apocalyptic moment, it asks us to imagine a world much the same as our current one, minus the climate change. That’s grim news for the other species with whom we share this beautiful, fragile planet. From the 80 billion land animals and trillions of sea creatures killed annually for food, to unchecked deforestation displacing habitats and migrations routes, to biodiversity loss and accelerating rates of extinction, the Anthropocene has made the world hell for earth’s other inhabitants. Rapacious consumption by the world’s wealthiest humans has driven countless ecosystems into disorder. Runaway climate change may drive one out of every three plant and animal species to extinction over the next 50 years.”

 

5. Laura Colombo, Adrien Bailey, Marcus Gomes, "Scaling in a post-growth era: Learning from Social Agricultural Cooperatives." Organization pp. 1-22 January 2023. Its copyright. So you need access via a library, probably at a university.  

I retired from university and still read the academic journals. I found this article using Google Scholar. The authors discuss "scaling" up of sustainability solutions and then imagine out loud the problem creates in an era of post growth/degrowth/post capitalism. They draw from Italian agricultural cooperatives in to explore nine other forms of scaling and do so in ways relevant to land issues in Module 2 and Module 3 on Food, as well as Module 5 - where we explore Italian social care coops as part of a larger ecosystem of policy and institutional supports. They write: 

" Scaling is typically understood as scaling-up. This article demonstrates that, in the context of post-growth organizations, scaling involves a more complex set of dynamics. Directing scholarly attention to scaling in the context of Italian Social Agricultural Cooperatives (i.e. organizations that hold a different rationale and modus operandi from the capitalist enterprise), this research contributes to the literature on scaling the impact of post-growth organizations by identifying nine different scaling routes: organizational growth (vertical and horizontal); organizational downscaling; impact on policies; multiplication; impact on organizational culture; impact on societal culture; aggregation; and diffusion. This article demonstrates that post-growth scaling: (1) requires the synergistic interaction of different strategies; (2) focuses on impacting societal culture; (3) does not necessarily require organizational growth; and (4) is a relational process, embedded in socio-ecological systems. "

 

 Mike Gismondi- March 15, 2023.